What’s New

October has arrived with anticipation. In South Africa (SA), it is the month of examinations, blooming Jacarandas, and a push to finish the year strong. Globally, it is no different: Leaders in the United Kingdom (UK) and Japan wrestle with their futures, while Washington and Brussels spar over the digital economy. Beneath the headlines lies a deeper question: How do nations, companies, and individuals create value in an uncertain world?

For the first time in years, South Africa’s (SA’s) inflation is closer to Switzerland’s than Zimbabwe’s. August’s Consumer Price Index slowed to 3.3% year-on-year, comfortably inside the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB’s) 3% to 6% target and edging towards the lower end. Core inflation remains steady at 3.1%. These figures are far from the double-digit surges of the past, suggesting that monetary policy is finally gaining traction. So, why did the SARB hold the repo rate unchanged at 7.00% in September instead of cutting it again? Policymakers argue that past easing still needs time to filter through. With the rand volatile and SA’s risk premium high, they prefer to wait for inflation to prove that it can stay low.

For more than a decade, South Africans have endured declining economic growth, persistent load shedding, and weak governance. Growth in real gross domestic product (GDP) has averaged less than 1% since 2014. It is tempting to think that this decline could continue indefinitely but we have already absorbed the worst shocks. Barring a severe political or service-delivery shock, the probability of a sustained collapse to zero or negative growth is very low.