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Every time the Middle East conflict intensifies, the same pattern unfolds: Oil rises, markets wobble, the rand looks vulnerable, and investors begin to feel that doing ‘something’ must be better than doing nothing. This instinct is powerful. It also causes many of the worst financial mistakes. In moments like these, fear creates an illusion of wisdom. A rushed decision can feel prudent simply because the headlines are unsettling.

The obvious headline is oil. But the more important story is dependence. Brent crude jumped roughly 25% on 9 March, briefly pushing towards $120 a barrel, as the Iran war raised fears over supply disruptions and the Strait of Hormuz. Yet, the market reaction did not stop at oil. Aluminium rose, edible oils jumped, grain prices firmed, bond yields lifted, and expectations for rate cuts faded. This is the reality: It is not just an energy shock. It is a reminder that when the world turns hostile, everything built on cheap transport, cheap inputs, and calm supply chains suddenly becomes more expensive.

The countdown narrative is back. In a recent interview, Mustafa Suleyman argued that most computer-based professional tasks could be automated within 12 to 18 months. This is a bold claim and easy to believe if you only watch model demonstrations. Here is the controversial counter: The timeline is wrong, not because the models are weak, but because organisations are slow. Everyone is confusing capability with adoption. Models can improve at an exponential-looking rate, whereas institutions almost never do. Companies move through procurement, governance, integration, training, and change management, only to discover that the edge cases were never documented. The bottleneck is not intelligence. It is implementation