What’s New

Most financial conversations begin too late. They start after money has already been earned. We then debate offshore exposure, fees, tax efficiency, and whether the Johannesburg Stock Exchange can outperform Wall Street. Although these are worthwhile questions, they are concerned with capital that has already accumulated. For most working households, the far larger economic value lies in capital that has not yet been earned.

The world economy is entering a dangerous new phase. Countries are pulling apart, while companies are growing larger. Payment systems are becoming political. Capital is concentrating in a handful of corporate giants. Governments want more control, investors want more scale, and ordinary citizens increasingly suspect that the system no longer works for them. This is not merely a story about the United States (US), China, or Europe. It is a warning for South Africa (SA).

For a few weeks, the global economy stared into an old fear: That politics in the Middle East could, again, become an inflation machine. Oil prices surged, the Strait of Hormuz became the centre of the financial world, and investors dusted off the kind of nightmare scenario usually reserved for crisis decks: $180 oil, food inflation, collapsing currencies, and central banks being forced to choose between growth and credibility.