Markets love a simple promise: When things get tough, someone will step in. In the United States (US) that promise has a name: The “Fed put”. This refers to the belief that the central bank will cushion losses and keep the cycle alive. This belief is again being tested as President Donald Trump nominates Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve (Fed).

Warsh’s critique has a certain “truthiness”: “Money on Wall Street is too easy, and credit on Main Street is too tight”. He has also argued for shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet, a move that can push up longer-term borrowing costs even if the policy rate falls. But the same storyline often smuggles in a second promise: That an artificial intelligence-driven productivity boom is close enough to let rates drop without inflation returning. Investors should be careful. Productivity miracles are not policy tools; they are outcomes. Betting today’s valuations on tomorrow’s productivity is how “truthiness” becomes strategy.

The deeper issue is not who chairs the Fed. It is that modern economies have become addicted to stabilisers. Over the past few decades, recessions have become rarer and expansions longer. This is partly because policymakers learned to fight every fire with rate cuts, emergency liquidity, fiscal cheques, and regulatory flexibility. Over time, this rewires incentives. When downturns are postponed repeatedly, risk does not disappear; it migrates. It shows up as higher leverage, thinner equity buffers, and companies that survive on refinancing rather than profits. Markets get trained to buy every dip because the referee hates drawdowns. The paradox is that the more stability you manufacture, the bigger the eventual repricing can be, because everyone is positioned for rescue.

Now widen the lens. The world is shifting from globalisation as the default to industrial policy as the default. The European Union (EU) is preparing “made in Europe” rules that would tilt parts of public procurement towards local production in green technologies. India, long a protectionist, is moving towards major trade deals with the US and the EU to accelerate export-led manufacturing. And the race for critical minerals is turning Brazil into a geopolitical auction house, with Washington backing a $565 million financing deal for Serra Verde, a Brazilian rare earths miner.

These trends reconnect the real economy to the financial one. Industrial policy is expensive. It reshapes supply chains. It can be inflationary in the short term, even if it is disinflationary later. And it creates a temptation: If the transition is bumpy, lean on the central bank to smooth it.

South Africa sits inside the same comfort trap. The South African Reserve Bank has held the repo rate at 6.75%, but the inflation story is not only about Consumer Price Index prints. Electricity is a policy variable: Nersa’s revised Eskom increases (8.76% in April 2026 and 8.83% in April 2027) remind us that administered prices can reintroduce pressure just as investors start pricing in easing. Add the rand’s sensitivity to US rates and global risk appetite, and the “Fed put” reaches your household budget.

So, what should a South African investor take from this?

First, stop treating “puts” as permanent laws of nature. They are political choices, and politics change. Second, favour resilience over narratives: Strong balance sheets, real pricing power, and business models that do not require cheap funding to exist. Third, diversify across regimes, not just assets. The last decade rewarded a tidy regime with abundant liquidity, smooth supply chains, and low inflation. The next may reward a messier mix: Strategic reshoring, resource constraints, and a higher premium on credible policy and cash flow. Avoiding recessions is not free. If we keep paying for stability with debt, subsidies, and central-bank balance sheets, we are not eliminating cycles; we are storing them.

This article has been published on Moneyweb.

For most of the past 70 years, India was the global economy’s great ‘almost’. It had scale, democracy, and ambition, but never grew. Economists even coined a term for it: The “Hindu rate of growth”, a pace so slow that it feels culturally ordained. Today, something different is happening. And for South African investors, watching from another large, complex, often-frustrated emerging market, India’s story is more than a curiosity; it is a mirror.

India is growing at more than 8%, inflation has collapsed to near 1%, and fiscal deficits are shrinking. This is happening despite tariffs from Donald Trump, a weak currency, and foreign investors selling down Indian equities. The usual excuses (hostile global conditions, volatile capital flows, and political risk) are all present. And yet growth persists. Why? Because India has quietly aligned three forces that rarely move together: Luck, discipline, and reform.

Let us start with luck. Good monsoon rains matter more than most investors realise. Food makes up nearly half of India’s inflation basket. Two strong agricultural years pushed food prices down, lifted real incomes, and gave consumers room to spend. Lower inflation also flatters real gross domestic product growth. This reminds us how fragile growth can be when it depends on the weather rather than on institutions.

The second force is discipline. India cut its budget deficit from pandemic-era excesses and resisted the temptation to spend its way out of trouble. Even when tariffs hit, the response was targeted: Simplify taxes, bring forward infrastructure spend, and ease monetary policy only because inflation allowed it. The Reserve Bank of India allowed the currency to weaken rather than to burn reserves or to defend a political line in the sand. This is a reminder that sometimes flexibility, not stubbornness, is the more credible form of monetary discipline.

The third, and most important, shift is structural reform. India has cleaned up its banks, digitised payments, simplified labour laws, opened sectors to private capital, and, crucially, started dismantling its own protectionism. Tariffs are coming down, quality-control barriers are being rolled back, and trade deals are being signed.

Here is the uncomfortable truth: United States (US) tariffs forced India to reform faster. When easy growth disappeared, political resistance weakened. Reform became less risky than stagnation. That is a lesson many countries learn only after wasting a decade. Now, contrast this with the US, the supposed anchor of global markets: Investors complain endlessly about US deficits, trade wars, and political chaos. And yet money keeps flowing in. US equities dominate global portfolios. US bonds still attract buyers. Why? Because productivity, earnings growth, and technological leadership outweigh institutional decay. Markets are amoral. They follow cashflows, not constitutions.

This creates a global paradox. India is reforming into relevance. The US is drifting politically, but still compounding economically. Europe, stuck in between, is scrambling for trade partners and strategic autonomy. For investors, this means the world is not divided into ‘safe’ and ‘risky’ markets anymore. Risk now lies in complacency; in assuming yesterday’s winners will always be tomorrow’s.

For South Africans, the parallels are striking. Like India, we are (relatively) large, unequal, democratic, and administratively complex. Like India, we have world-class firms alongside failing institutions. And like India, we face a choice: Reform early and painfully, or drift until crisis removes the choice altogether.

India’s experience suggests something hopeful, but demanding. Growth is not primarily a function of ideology, foreign capital, or slogans. It comes from boring, persistent work: Fiscal restraint, credible central banks, functioning infrastructure, and rules that make investment easier rather than harder. Luck helps, but only if institutions are ready to receive it. Markets will forgive a lot. They will tolerate messy politics, noisy leaders, and even tariffs, until productivity falters. When this happens, the rotation out of assets is brutal. India is betting that reform now is cheaper than rescue later. Investors would do well to pay attention, not just to where growth is today, but to where discipline is being built for tomorrow.

 

As 2025 draws to a close, one truth stands out: This was the year the world finally accepted that the economic landscape has permanently changed. Markets were more volatile, geopolitics moved prices on a weekly basis, and deep structural shifts forced investors to rethink what “normal” means. So, what happened in 2025?

Our world adjusted to a structural reality

At the start of 2025, many expected rapid interest-rate cuts and a return to the low-inflation environment of the past decade. Instead, the world confronted a different truth: Inflation is no longer only cyclical; it is structural. Trillions are being invested in energy transition, new supply chains, semiconductor capacity, and enormous artificial intelligence and data-centre infrastructure. The future is simply more expensive than the past. Markets also rewarded companies that generated real cash flow and real value. Performance without substance was no longer enough.

Geopolitics became an economic variable

Although 2025 was not a major global election year, the after-effects of political shifts in the United States, Europe, and Asia shaped trade expectations, regulation, and investor sentiment. Energy security, rivalry in the technology sector, and supply-chain realignments became daily market drivers. Geopolitics stopped being background noise; it became the rhythm that markets traded on.

2025 was a challenging but decisive year for South Africa (SA)

Although SA faced pressure, the past year was far more constructive than expected:

• Grey-listing progress and improved credibility: SA completed the reforms required to drop off the Financial Action Task Force’s grey list, strengthening financial oversight and enforcement. Even before the final announcement, global markets responded positively.
• Credit-rating momentum turned positive: For the first time in years, a leading ratings agency upgraded SA’s outlook, citing improvements in fiscal discipline, better energy stability, and early signs of logistics reform. While we remain below investment grade, SA’s direction has finally shifted upward.
• Stronger markets and a more resilient rand: Government bond yields fell to multi-year lows as confidence improved. Local equities benefitted from global rallies and domestic reform momentum. While volatile, the rand traded much stronger than during the most uncertain phases of the year.

The case for financial well-being

All of this brings us back to a message that we have emphasised for years: Financial well-being cannot be bought in a product. While products and performance matter, a product is only ever one piece of a much larger picture. It cannot understand your life, your responsibilities, or your long-term goals. That is why clients often feel the industry is product-driven: The product gets sold but the real need behind the decision is never fully understood.

Our differentiator is clear: We deliver holistic, independent financial advice (enhanced with technology) that clarifies a client’s true financial needs and builds a complete, unique solution around them. That is financial well-being for every one.

Holistic advice reveals the real purpose behind the decision: It is not what you want to buy but why you need it and what outcome it must achieve. Independence ensures that the solution serves the client, not a product’s agenda. And technology allows us to integrate, monitor, and adapt the plan over time, making this level of clarity accessible to more people than ever before.

The combination of holistic + independent + technology-enabled turns products into meaningful components of a broader strategy. It connects decisions to outcomes. And, ultimately, it is a complete, well-designed solution that makes clients financially well.

Looking ahead

If 2025 was the year the world accepted change, 2026 will be the year investors must decide how to respond to it. Holistic advice will shift from “nice to have” to essential. Technology will reshape access and insight. And those who prioritise financial well-being over market noise will be the ones who thrive.

We thank you for your trust, your partnership, and your continued support during the past year. We look forward to building a stronger, wiser, and financially healthier future, together!

This article has been published on Moneyweb.

Global markets are sending mixed (and revealing) signals. Wall Street’s biggest dealmakers are busy again. Former ‘problem’ European countries have become disciplined. The United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed) is pushing back against hopes for endless rate cuts. For South African investors, these are not just foreign headlines. They hint at where the next shocks to growth, inflation, and interest rates may come from.

 

Deals are back, and this matters

Goldman Sachs is on track to advise on around a third of global mergers and acquisitions announced this year, its strongest grip on the deals market in almost a decade. You do not get a multi-trillion-dollar M&A pipeline if boardrooms are terrified. You get it when large companies believe that buying growth and market share still pays. For South Africa (SA), this is a reminder that while our news flow is dominated by load shedding, logistics bottlenecks, and political instability, significant parts of the global economy are already positioning for the next expansion, not the next crisis. The world’s largest corporations are not waiting to see how things turn out; they are acting on conviction.

 

Spain, the ‘saint’; Germany, the ‘sinner’?

Seventeen years after the Eurozone debt crisis, the old narrative has been turned on its head. Spain (once bundled with Greece and Portugal as fiscally reckless) is now on course to run smaller budget deficits than Germany. Growth, tourism, immigration, and targeted public investment have pushed Spain’s deficit towards 2.3% of its gross domestic product. Germany’s, meanwhile, is rising as it belatedly repairs years of underinvestment in railways, bridges, defence, industry, and energy. The lesson for SA is uncomfortable but essential: You cannot cut your way to prosperity, and you cannot borrow your way there either. Countries that combine credible fiscal anchors with pro-growth investment get rewarded. Those who rely on slogans, consumption spending, and short-term fixes eventually pay more to borrow. They also have far less room to manoeuvre when the next shock hits.

 

The Fed reminds markets who is in charge

After two rate cuts in a row, investors were convinced that a third was on its way in December. Then, several Fed members pushed back, warning that inflation is still above target and that, with limited economic data owing to the US government shutdown, cutting too aggressively would be reckless. The reaction was immediate: Short-term bond yields ticked higher and equities wobbled. For emerging markets like SA, a slower pace of US easing likely means a firmer dollar, tighter global liquidity, and more vulnerability in local risk assets every time sentiment turns.

 

When steak becomes a macro story

One of the more unusual inflation stories this year centres around beef. Years of drought, high feed and fertiliser costs, disease outbreaks, and now tariffs have shrunk cattle herds across major producers. Supply is tight, demand is stubborn, and politics is amplifying the squeeze. Beef prices have hit record highs. The response is a case study in how not to manage a supply-side shock. South Africans know this pattern well. When food or fuel prices spike, the poorest households suffer first and for the longest time. Climate volatility and policy mistakes are now a combined risk factor for food inflation everywhere.

 

The big picture for SA

Put all this together, and a theme emerges. We are moving into a world where capital is more selective, central banks are less willing to underwrite asset prices, and countries that get the growth/debt balance right are rewarded faster than before. For South African investors, that is both a warning and an opportunity. The easy-money era is behind us but disciplined capital, independent advice, and a long-term view have rarely mattered more. The real question is whether we treat these global signals as background noise, or as a mirror showing us what we urgently need to change at home.

This article has been published on Moneyweb.

We often measure success in rands and cents. Whether it is economic growth, the value of our homes, or the number on our payslips, we have come to believe that financial health is about how much we have. But true financial well-being is far more complex. It is not a measure of wealth but of contentment: The ability to live free from financial stress, make confident decisions, and plan for a future that feels secure and meaningful.

This distinction matters because South Africa (SA) has built an economy that prizes financial access without necessarily improving financial well-being. Many South Africans have bank accounts, loans, and insurance policies, yet most remain financially anxious. They feel caught in a system that sells financial products but seldom builds financial confidence.

At its core, financial well-being is the state in which individuals feel in control of their money, can absorb a shock, meet their financial goals, and have the freedom to make choices that enable a meaningful life. It is about quality, not quantity; stewardship rather than accumulation.

 

The economics of well-being

For decades, policymakers and economists have pursued growth as the ultimate goal. Growth creates jobs, jobs create income, and income drives spending. Yet, when that cycle fails to deliver dignity or opportunity, we need to ask: Growth for whom, and to what end?

The economics of financial well-being reminds us that prosperity is not sustainable unless it serves people. It requires more than macroeconomic stability; it needs better leadership, better policies, and better execution. As argued before, plans do not build bridges – actions do. When leaders act with accountability, they create an environment where businesses can invest, jobs can grow, and citizens can flourish. This is how we generate more wealth to efficiently redistribute, not through handouts and today’s redistributive policies but through opportunity. Grants can uplift but only performance-based opportunities can transform.

The experience of Scandinavian economies illustrates that sustainable well-being begins with wealth creation, not redistribution. By first investing in education, entrepreneurship, and ethical governance, these nations built productive economies capable of funding meaningful social upliftment. Redistribution then became a tool for empowerment rather than dependency.

 

Why does ‘every one’ matter?

There is a reason to write ‘every one’ as two words instead of ‘everyone’. The difference is subtle but profound. ‘Everyone’ speaks to the collective, while ‘every one’ emphasises the individual. It reminds us that financial well-being cannot be achieved in the abstract, or as a national statistic. It must be realised person by person: In each household, each business, and each decision that shapes a life. Every one of us has unique goals and circumstances, yet we all share a common need: To feel financially confident and capable. When individuals thrive, communities strengthen, and economies follow. In that sense, financial well-being is not a luxury; it is a national imperative.

 

The way forward

Achieving financial well-being for every one will require more than clever products or quick fixes. It demands a cultural shift from seeing money as the end to seeing it as a means to well-being. That shift starts with financial education, accessible advice, and technology that empowers rather than intimidates. It also calls for leadership and business practices that act with stewardship, making decisions that enhance the long-term well-being of all stakeholders: Employees, clients, and communities alike.

If we can create an economy built on that foundation – one where leadership is accountable, opportunities are earned, and financial confidence replaces financial fear – then SA’s future will look far brighter. Because financial well-being is not about making every one rich, it is about ensuring that every one can live with purpose, dignity, and hope.