The media mirage: Lessons from the US election’s unseen realities
Dr. Francois Stofberg: Senior Economist at Efficient Wealth and the Managing Director of Efficient Private Clients.
The recent United States (US) presidential election, with Donald Trump’s landslide victory, has highlighted a stark disconnect between traditional media narratives and on-the-ground reality. Many mainstream channels projected Vice President Kamala Harris as the likely winner, shaping public sentiment and investor outlook. However, when results rolled in, the disparity between predictions and outcomes sparked a wave of doubt around whether the media truly serves to inform or merely to perpetuate agendas.
Media bias and economic repercussions
Media bias carries significant economic repercussions. For months, major networks confidently projected Harris as the favoured candidate, swaying public and investor perceptions. When the actual results contradicted these forecasts, it left many investors scrambling. The unexpected shift led to a surge in US markets as investors recalibrated for Trump’s renewed emphasis on deregulation and economic reform. Those who had leaned heavily on mainstream predictions to guide their investment strategies felt the impact of an unexpected market pivot.
This election reinforced that investors need to look beyond mainstream headlines. Relying solely on widely circulated media narratives leaves room for unanticipated risks, especially when those narratives fail to reflect reality. Today’s complex market landscape calls for diverse information sources and independent thinking, a need that this election vividly illustrated.
The new source of truth: X (formerly Twitter)
With legacy media’s objectivity under scrutiny, many are turning to platforms like X for unfiltered information. Elon Musk’s acquisition of X was a game-changer in this respect. Musk emphasises transparency and supports “uncensored truth”, creating a platform where grassroots journalism and independent voices thrive. Unlike traditional media, which is often influenced by advertisers or editorial boards, X offers real-time insights directly from the public, often giving a voice to those on the ground with first-hand perspectives.
For investors, X represents a valuable tool. Its unfiltered nature allows users to gain insights and gauge real-time sentiment directly, adding depth to investment research. Independent voices and citizen journalists on X are no longer the alternative; they are an essential component to forming a fuller, often more accurate, understanding of political and economic events.
“Draining the swamp” and bureaucratic reform
Trump’s victory speech, with its promise to “drain the swamp”, resonated deeply with many Americans. His administration has pledged to cut back bureaucratic red tape and simplify government, which he argues will enhance economic growth by removing barriers to innovation. For investors, these reforms could translate into new opportunities across industries previously bogged down by regulation, offering a landscape more conducive to business growth and competition.
Reducing bureaucratic “fat” aligns with the principles of economic efficiency and could spur expansion in the private sector. Trump’s plan to streamline government, remove regulatory burdens, and create a leaner public sector appeals to investors who see an overregulated environment as hindering progress and profitability.
Investor takeaways: Diversify and verify
In a media climate where traditional channels face a credibility crisis, the recent election offers a key lesson for investors: Do not accept headlines at face value. Platforms, like X, are helping to shift the power back to the people, making it easier for investors to verify information, diversify perspectives, and protect against bias in conventional reporting. Today’s market participants are learning that a well-rounded approach (embracing both traditional sources and platforms fostering open dialogue) allows for more informed and adaptable investment strategies.
Trump’s victory has opened the door for policy shifts that could spur economic growth, and Musk’s leadership at X has created a space for truth to emerge without editorial constraint. For investors, this is an era of recalibration, where staying informed means actively seeking out independent insights. The future of investing will belong to those willing to look beyond conventional narratives to find the real story.
The illusion of prosperity: America’s fragile economic boom
Dr. Francois Stofberg: Senior Economist at Efficient Wealth and the Managing Director of Efficient Private Clients.
As the United States (US) focusses on the results of the presidential election, America’s economic success is front and centre. The US economy has grown nearly 3% on average for nine consecutive quarters, and foreign investors have eagerly poured capital into American assets. This influx has pushed the US’ share of the global stock market to an unprecedented 60%. But behind this image of prosperity, there is a reality that is less glamorous and far more troubling. For many Americans, this growth feels distant, as most economic benefits remain concentrated among the affluent.
At first glance, the US economy looks robust with strong corporate profits, continuous growth, and heightened foreign investment. Yet, the benefits are largely restricted to the wealthy, while most Americans struggle to keep up with rising costs and stagnant wages. The wealthiest 20% of households account for 40% of all consumer spending, leaving the bottom 40% to stretch their limited resources to cover the basics. This divide paints a picture of what some call a “gilded economy”, where growth appears impressive but is heavily concentrated and brittle.
A debt-fuelled mirage
The economic growth is also highly unusual because it is not fuelled by private-sector investments but by substantial government borrowing. The US deficit has more than doubled over the past decade, now exceeding 6% of its gross domestic product, with government spending supporting much of the economic activity. Historically, government borrowing increases to stabilise the economy during downturns but, today, it is the engine behind what we see as prosperity. Rising deficits have also driven up corporate profits, following the Kalecki-Levy equation, a century-old economic relationship that links corporate profits with government deficits.
This dependence on debt introduces long-term risks. While foreign investors continue to buy US assets and treat the dollar as a safe haven, the nation’s debt burden could eventually become a significant vulnerability. Rising long-term interest rates already signal potential trouble on the horizon. Historically, when countries rely too heavily on debt, they face financial challenges once investor sentiment shifts. Although the US enjoys unique advantages as the issuer of the world’s reserve currency, this privilege may not be immune to shifts in global confidence.
Generational challenges and social shifts
As wealth increasingly pools at the top, younger generations find it more challenging to achieve financial stability. Many young Americans now spend nearly half of their income on rent/home ownership, while marriage and family formation are delayed owing to rising costs. These pressures have led to notable social shifts, with many young adults embracing frugal lifestyles.
The financial strain has also boosted the popularity of social media “financial influencers” who promise pathways to independence through side hustles and strict saving regimens. This phenomenon reflects a generation eager for economic security in a landscape where traditional wealth-building pathways seem increasingly inaccessible. As a result, optimism about the future is divided along income lines: While affluent Americans remain confident, young and middle-income individuals feel excluded from the economic boom.
Lessons from history
History shows that great economies often falter when debt outweighs growth, burdening future generations. Although the US currently benefits from its economic strength and global demand for the dollar, no country is immune forever. Other developed nations are already facing the consequences of unchecked deficits, as investors penalise them for prolonged fiscal imbalance. The US has avoided similar penalties, owing to its unique position in the global economy, but this advantage might not last indefinitely.
As Americans vote for a new president, they confront more than just a choice between parties. They face a decision about the economy’s direction and whether it should be reoriented towards sustainable, inclusive growth. To avoid a future marked by economic fragility and mounting debt, the next administration must prioritise fiscal responsibility and policies that address widening inequalities. Without such measures, America’s growth may remain a thin, gilded surface; one that is vulnerable to the next economic storm.
The evolving interest rate landscape
Dr. Francois Stofberg: Senior Economist at Efficient Wealth and the Managing Director of Efficient Private Clients.
The first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) has happened and now the focus has shifted from “when” to “where”: Where are interest rates heading next? This shift is more than a mere change in phrasing; it is a sign of the evolving economic landscape, with real consequences for growth, investment, and employment.
The path of interest rates affects every corner of the economy, from the cost of borrowing for a home to whether companies invest in new projects. Economists use the term “neutral real Fed policy rate”, or R-star, to describe the level of interest rates that is neither too stimulative nor too restrictive for economic growth. This is a kind of Goldilocks zone: Not too hot, not too cold, but just right.
In 2018, inflation was on target at 2% and unemployment was low. The Fed raised its policy rate to 2.5%, translating to a real rate of about 0.5%. Many viewed this as the new normal for monetary policy. But the financial landscape has changed since then. The yield curve (a key indicator used by economists to determine where rates are headed) has shown unusual trends, making this moment different from the past.
Before the global financial crisis, real policy rates typically hovered around 2% but, now, projections suggest a target for the funds rate of about 3% once inflation stabilises at 2%. However, determining the neutral rate today is more challenging, particularly as the world wrestles with new forces like rising government debt, shifting demographics, and the transformative power of artificial intelligence (AI).
Some experts believe that the neutral rate needs to be much higher than the pre-pandemic 0.5% level, citing factors such as rising deficits, which require higher interest to attract investors, and the prospect of an AI-driven productivity boom, which could increase demand for loans. If companies need more money to invest in technology and innovation, interest rates might need to rise to balance that demand.
There is also the term premium to consider. The term premium is the extra return investors demand to hold longer-term bonds instead of shorter-term bonds. Typically, the yield curve has a positive slope, meaning rates increase over time to compensate investors for holding longer-term debt. However, recent inversions (where short-term rates are higher than long-term rates) have caused confusion and concern. These inversions are likely a temporary distortion rather than the new normal.
The yield curve is expected to adjust by steepening (where long-term rates rise relative to short-term rates) to attract enough buyers for the growing pile of government bonds. Investors will demand a higher term premium, meaning that they will want more return for holding bonds for longer. For fixed-income investors, this could be a positive development. They might be rewarded not only for the interest rate risk that they bear but also enjoy the hedge that bonds provide when the economy hits a rough patch.
What does this mean for interest rates in South Africa (SA)? The Fed’s actions often have significant ripple effects on emerging markets, including SA. As United States interest rates adjust, SA may face increased pressure on its own rates to maintain investor confidence and manage capital flows.
The evolving interest rate landscape is a story of change; a story that affects each of us differently, depending on our place in the economy. But, as with most things, change also brings opportunity. For those willing to adapt, the shifting contours of rates, yields, and economic policy could open new doors to financial security and growth.
If leaders fail, children suffer
Dr. Francois Stofberg: Senior Economist at Efficient Wealth and the Managing Director of Efficient Private Clients.
South Africa’s (SA’s) post-apartheid dream of a prosperous nation remains unrealised for many. While political freedom was achieved in 1994, economic freedom and opportunity have lagged. Poor leadership, particularly in government, is a key cause of this. A lack of accountability has resulted in flawed policies that hinder economic progress, leaving millions in poverty.
Leadership failures and policy missteps
Much of SA’s economic hardship stems from leadership failures during critical moments. For more than 30 years, under the African National Congress (ANC), decisions lacked accountability and a focus on long-term goals. Despite initial successes after 1994, the government failed to create policies that would foster sustainable growth and economic freedom. Corruption and mismanagement became entrenched, leading to a failure to deliver on promises of economic development. Instead of encouraging entrepreneurship and attracting foreign investment, the government turned to populist rhetoric and short-term solutions. This has led to failing infrastructure, unreliable energy supply, and a regulatory environment that discourages business growth.
Rising unemployment and deepening poverty
The lack of sound economic policies has resulted in a persistent unemployment crisis, which is one of SA’s most pressing issues. In 1994, job creation was a central promise of the new government. Yet, three decades later, unemployment, particularly among the youth, has skyrocketed. Youth unemployment often exceeds 50%, leaving an entire generation without hope or opportunity. High unemployment, in turn, directly leads to deeper poverty. Families are left without income, and children suffer the most. When parents are jobless, their children face the consequences – poor access to education, healthcare, and nutrition. These children are trapped in a cycle of poverty that is difficult to escape.
Childhood poverty: The toll of poor governance
The suffering of children is the most visible sign of a government’s leadership failures. Statistics show that about 60% of South African children live below the poverty line. These children face an uphill battle, lacking access to quality education, adequate healthcare, and proper nutrition. Schools are underfunded, infrastructure is inadequate, and many educators lack the necessary training. As a result, millions of children receive substandard education, which limits their chances of breaking free from the cycle of poverty. The long-term impact is profound: A poorly-educated population cannot contribute meaningfully to the economy, which further hinders growth.
A shift in the political landscape
Despite this bleak situation, there are signs of change and hope in SA’s political landscape. The ANC is losing its grip on power and disillusioned voters are turning to alternatives like the Government of National Unity, a coalition of opposition parties that offers a fresh approach to governance. The Democratic Alliance (DA), a key coalition player, has demonstrated that action-oriented leadership can lead to tangible improvements (although they have lost much of their vigour in recent years). In areas under DA control, such as Cape Town, there have been clear signs of progress – better infrastructure, improved service delivery, and policies that support economic growth. This shift towards more accountable, results-driven governance is offering hope to a weary population.
The way forward: Action-oriented leadership
SA is at a crucial juncture. The next decade will be pivotal as the country moves away from a leadership style that failed to deliver sustainable growth. Action-oriented, accountable leadership, as seen in the private sector, is essential to reversing the country’s fortunes. The focus must be on creating an environment that is conducive to economic growth, which includes improving education and rebuilding critical infrastructure.
For the millions of children who suffer under the weight of poverty, these changes are vital. If political leaders can adopt policies that prioritise long-term growth over short-term growth, SA can begin to break free from the cycle of poverty. Leadership that values accountability and measurable outcomes can ensure that children grow up with opportunities for a better future. The legacy of poor governance has left a lasting mark on the country but, with political shifts and a focus on action, there is hope for recovery.
If leaders fail, children suffer. But if leaders succeed, there is hope for a better, more prosperous future for us all.