Entries by Christine van Graan

A definitive shift in SA’s long-term economic trajectory

It is undeniable that South Africa’s (SA’s) economy is in a poor state. But evidence suggests that the rate of deterioration has slowed down considerably. In fact, a strong case can be made to show that the rate of improvement is greater than the rate of deterioration. And, if that is the case, the long-term trajectory is towards a flourishing rather than towards a withering economy, an economy where employment income and life expectancies increase rather than decrease.

China’s Yue Fei moment may be upon us… Again!

Yue Fei, the son of an impoverished farmer from Northern China, is one of China’s most decorated and celebrated war heroes. As the Jurchens invaded Southern China in the 1130s, it was Yue Fei who showed tremendous courage as he and his troops fended off the advancing army. He was so courageous that he once, with only 500 men, defeated 100 000 Jurchen soldiers. To this day, Yue Fei is a national symbol of hope during difficult times.

Interest rates: To increase or not to increase, that is the question

Last week, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) increased interest rates for the eighth consecutive time since they started their rate-hiking cycle in November 2021. Since then, the prime interest rate has increased by 3.75% to 10.75%, its highest level since 2009. This means that every R1 million debt that a household has, will now be roughly R3 125 more expensive each month; a thought that is keeping many South Africans awake at night.

Opportunities in the equity market

The market-based losses of 2022 make it tempting to look back in awe, in frustration, and in anger. But do not. The first month of 2023 provided active investors with a glimpse of what might lie ahead in 2023.

Will the world enter a global recession? Probably not

Global markets were all over the show the past week, trying to digest the myriad of, often opposing, data that was released from all around the world. When considering the likely growth trajectory of the global economy market, observers turn towards the large economic blocks: The United States (US), Europe, and China (which is often also used as a proxy for growth in Asia). Data from the US and China stole the show last week.

Markets and economics: What to expect from 2023

Here we are, another new year with all of its potential, whether good or bad. Most investors seem anxious, and for good reason, as the last few years have not been kind. So, what do we expect from 2023? Well, first, it is important to remember that forecasts are, at best, well-informed guestimates. We do not have a crystal ball; we simply use our experiences and historic data to mathematically extrapolate what can potentially occur in the future.

Take Control Of Your Finances In 2023 With Efficient Wealth

Yue Fei, the son of an impoverished farmer from Northern China, is one of China’s most decorated and celebrated war heroes. As the Jurchens invaded Southern China in the 1130s, it was Yue Fei who showed tremendous courage as he and his troops fended off the advancing army. He was so courageous that he once, with only 500 men, defeated 100 000 Jurchen soldiers. To this day, Yue Fei is a national symbol of hope during difficult times.

Recency bias and how 2022 affected investors

Finally, we come to the end of another volatile year that tested the best of us. Since the latter parts of 2018, global markets have not been kind towards investors. Markets fell by roughly 15% in the final stretches of 2018, then recovered, and then the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 beat down the markets by more than 30%. After governments stepped in with substantial fiscal and monetary support, which ballooned debt and overstimulated demand even more, the recovery was quick.