Entries by Christine van Graan

The next economic battle is not about oil; it is about who writes the rules

Markets are drawn to visible power. Missiles, tariffs, sanctions, trade wars, oil spikes; these are all things that move prices quickly and dominate headlines. They feel like the real story because they are dramatic and immediate. But the deeper shifts in the global economy often happen elsewhere, in quieter places: Committees, secretariats, treaties, standards bodies, and the institutions that slowly shape how countries and companies are expected to operate.

When markets tremble, discipline matters more than forecasts

Every time the Middle East conflict intensifies, the same pattern unfolds: Oil rises, markets wobble, the rand looks vulnerable, and investors begin to feel that doing ‘something’ must be better than doing nothing. This instinct is powerful. It also causes many of the worst financial mistakes. In moments like these, fear creates an illusion of wisdom. A rushed decision can feel prudent simply because the headlines are unsettling.

The war that just exposed SA’s real economic problem

For years, the world told itself a soothing story. Oil was the old economy. Artificial intelligence (AI) was the new one. Tankers, pipelines, and shipping lanes belonged to a fading industrial age, while chips, data centres, and algorithms belonged to the future. The Iran war has exposed how false this story was. The future still runs through narrow sea lanes, vulnerable energy systems, and geopolitical fault lines that markets prefer to treat as distant background noise.

Can SA fix its Code 3 economy?

There is a metaphor that says more about our economy than most policy papers do. Think of a Code 3 car. It still runs. It can be repaired, polished, and resold. But everyone knows that something serious happened to it. At some point, it was written off. The damage ran deep enough that, even after repairs, confidence never fully returned. It may still move, but it no longer inspires the trust of a sound, well-maintained car. And that is why some banks will not finance Code 3 cars at all.

The world is repricing dependence, and SA is exposed

The obvious headline is oil. But the more important story is dependence. Brent crude jumped roughly 25% on 9 March, briefly pushing towards $120 a barrel, as the Iran war raised fears over supply disruptions and the Strait of Hormuz. Yet, the market reaction did not stop at oil. Aluminium rose, edible oils jumped, grain prices firmed, bond yields lifted, and expectations for rate cuts faded. This is the reality: It is not just an energy shock. It is a reminder that when the world turns hostile, everything built on cheap transport, cheap inputs, and calm supply chains suddenly becomes more expensive.

2026 Budget: A little relief, a lot of responsibility

The most important number in this year’s Budget is R21.3 billion, representing the upward revision of gross tax revenue compared to 2025’s estimate. It is also the number that bought Treasury room to withdraw the previously pencilled-in R20 billion tax increase, restore inflation relief, and present a Budget that feels less punitive than many feared. That is not the same as saying that South Africa (SA) suddenly has fiscal abundance. It means that Treasury got a temporary revenue cushion and chose to use it to steady the mood.

The credibility premium: When markets start pricing the referees

Most market weeks feel like a tug of war between growth and inflation. Yet, 2026 is increasingly about a third variable that does not sit neatly in a spreadsheet, namely institutional credibility. This is not about policy itself, but rather about whether institutions that set policy can still commit to it when political incentives change.

The 18-month myth: AI cannot automate jobs until companies do

The countdown narrative is back. In a recent interview, Mustafa Suleyman argued that most computer-based professional tasks could be automated within 12 to 18 months. This is a bold claim and easy to believe if you only watch model demonstrations. Here is the controversial counter: The timeline is wrong, not because the models are weak, but because organisations are slow. Everyone is confusing capability with adoption. Models can improve at an exponential-looking rate, whereas institutions almost never do. Companies move through procurement, governance, integration, training, and change management, only to discover that the edge cases were never documented. The bottleneck is not intelligence. It is implementation

The comfort trap: When “truthiness” becomes policy

Markets love a simple promise: When things get tough, someone will step in. In the United States (US) that promise has a name: The “Fed put”. This refers to the belief that the central bank will cushion losses and keep the cycle alive. This belief is again being tested as President Donald Trump nominates Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve (Fed).

Financial well-being for every one

South Africa is facing a retirement crisis: Only about 4% of South Africans can retire comfortably, despite decades of saving, countless product options, and an industry built on promises of performance. If products alone were the solution, more people would be financially secure. They are not.