In today’s investment landscape, investors must trust their financial advisors for guidance. Despite its historical significance, the South African equity market has seen a decline in global attention over the past decade. Many experts have extensively discussed this trend and retail investors have responded by hesitating to deploy capital within South Africa, often opting to invest abroad owing to concerns about local governance.
Instead of merely reciting interesting numbers, our aim has always been to try and tell the story behind the numbers. The reason for this is simple: Stories relay the deeper truths behind numbers. The story behind this year’s Budget is an interesting one, mostly because it was so masterfully orchestrated. Maybe even as well as one of the Fitzgerald or Hemingway classics.
The world of investing thrives on making informed decisions, navigating risk, and aiming for profitable outcomes. In this bustling market, valuation acts as a compass, guiding investors towards potentially undervalued gems or warning against overinflated bubbles. But is valuation truly essential?
Battered by low wage growth, high interest rates, and increasing debt levels, many South African consumers are in the worst financial shape that they have been in for years, maybe even decades. The result is a persistently weak economy. But, the worst might be over.
Long-term investing shares parallels with the Tour de France – a strategic journey where endurance prevails over short-term sprints. Much like cyclists navigating diverse terrains, investors navigate market fluctuations from quarter to quarter and year to year. Success demands patience, resilience, and a strategic approach, underscoring the significance of steadfast commitment in the financial race for wealth.
As the tax year comes to an end, investors assess their retirement annuities and tax-free savings accounts. They also ask: Why is there a variance in my monthly contribution returns? The short answer is that debit order investments benefit from down markets.
During the last few years, it seems as though we have started each year in the same way: Warning investors about potential market volatility. This year, as local and global factors converge into a cooking pot of uncertainty, seems to be no different. In the end, however, our advice has been stellar and has rewarded investors who stayed the course.
It has been a tough year for South Africans. In fact, we have been having tough years for as long as we can remember. Inflation has slowly been increasing since the 4% levels that we saw pre-COVID. In 2022, inflation reached nearly 7% and will most likely be around 6% in 2023. Higher inflation means that buying power deteriorates faster, making South Africans feel poorer. Interest rates, which are also higher than they should be, are doing their share to make us feel miserable.
To curb inflation, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) raised interest rates by 4.75% to a 14-year high of 8.25%. Following the various shocks that our economy faced throughout COVID-19, inflation breached the upper limit of the SARB’s target range for 13 consecutive months, which led to the SARB tightening monetary policy since November 2021.
Most investors understand that diversification is important. Research has shown that investors can produce better risk-adjusted returns by diversifying between, and often even within, different asset classes. Someone who uses traditional financial instruments to save for retirement will typically invest in a balanced portfolio. Depending on many factors, they will have around 40% to 60% equity exposure (local and global), 15% to 30% fixed-income exposure (mostly local but also global), and then some listed property, commodity, and cash exposure.
