Leadership, trade, and the search for value
October has arrived with anticipation. In South Africa (SA), it is the month of examinations, blooming Jacarandas, and a push to finish the year strong. Globally, it is no different: Leaders in the United Kingdom (UK) and Japan wrestle with their futures, while Washington and Brussels spar over the digital economy. Beneath the headlines lies a deeper question: How do nations, companies, and individuals create value in an uncertain world?
A tale of two democracies
In the UK, Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces a defining speech as he struggles to steady a restless Labour Party and to counter Nigel Farage’s surging Reform UK. Across the globe in Japan, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party prepares to choose a new leader: Potentially its first female Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, or the youthful Shinjirō Koizumi. Both contests reveal that leadership is fragile. Even in wealthy democracies, credibility rests not only on policy but on the ability to project vision and unity. For SA, where poor leadership has long hindered progress, these examples matter. They show that renewal is possible when societies demand accountability but also that even strong nations are not immune to crisis.
The new battleground: Digital rules
Meanwhile, Europe and the United States (US) are clashing over the Digital Markets Act and Digital Services Act, laws aimed at curbing Big Tech. To Washington, these laws look like protectionism. To Brussels, they are consumer safeguards. The battle is less about smartphones or search engines than about who writes the rules of the modern economy. South Africans should take note: Rules drafted in Washington or Brussels ripple into Sandton, Soweto, and Stellenbosch. If costs rise for US tech firms in Europe, they may be passed on to emerging markets. Conversely, stricter regulations could create space for African innovators. Sovereignty in the digital age does not come from geography but from the courage to define your own standards and to insist on fair competition.
Africa’s trade window
Recently, Washington delivered some good news stating that the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) may be extended. Since 2000, AGOA has given African exporters (including SA) duty-free access to US markets. Without it, thousands of jobs and revenues would be at risk. Yet, debates around AGOA highlight a vulnerability: Africa still relies on preferential access to others’ markets. The continent must use any extension to deepen regional trade, climb the value chain, and ensure global supply chains cannot bypass Africa in favour of Asia.
The Chinese puzzle
China, too, is sending mixed signals. Industrial profits surged more than 20% in August, the first rebound in months. But weak domestic demand, overcapacity in electric vehicles, and the drag of US tariffs still threaten stability. For SA, heavily tied to Chinese demand for minerals, this volatility is critical. A rebound could support exporters, whereas a relapse could expose our fragility.
Lessons for SA
What, then, should South Africans take from this swirl of global developments?
First, leadership matters. Whether in London, Tokyo, or Pretoria, the ability to project a credible vision and unite coalitions is what drives momentum.
Second, rules matter. From Brussels’ digital acts to Washington’s trade pacts, the fine print shapes the future of industries. SA cannot remain a passive rule-taker; we must help shape regional standards that protect both consumers and innovators.
Third, resilience matters. Our economy cannot hinge on whether Washington extends AGOA or Beijing stimulates demand. Diversification of trade partners, industries, and skills is our only true insurance policy.
Finally, inspiration matters. This month, the Orionid meteor shower will streak across the night sky, reminding us that, while politics and economics may seem messy, beauty and rhythm persist beyond our control. For South Africans weary of stagnation, perhaps the lesson is this: The sky is vast, history is long, and even in turbulent times, there is space to reimagine what prosperity and leadership could mean on our southern tip of Africa.
This article has been published on Moneyweb.
