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The answer to South Africa’s predicament is complete state reform

Bottom-up and top-down investment strategies

Dr. Francois Stofberg: Senior Economist at Efficient Wealth and the Managing Director of Efficient Private Clients, with specialist input from Christiaan van Wyk.

The investment industry, like most other professions, has evolved over time with various approaches and strategies coming to the fore, each with its own inherent characteristics. When investing in listed shares, two dominant approaches stand out: Fundamental bottom-up and top-down investment strategies. These approaches represent distinct methodologies for selecting and managing investment portfolios, each rooted in a unique perspective and analysis framework. Fundamental bottom-up investing is based on the scrutinisation of individual assets or securities, assessing their intrinsic value, and making investment decisions based on the merits of each specific opportunity. Conversely, top-down investment strategies take a broader macro-economic viewpoint, where investors first evaluate global or sectoral economic trends and then identify industries likely to benefit from those trends before honing in on specific investments. Understanding these two contrasting approaches is crucial for investors seeking to tailor their strategies to their investment goals and risk tolerances.

Fundamental bottom-up investing offers several benefits. One of the primary advantages is its ability to provide a deep understanding of individual securities. By focussing on the intrinsic value of each investment, investors can potentially identify undervalued opportunities and make well-informed decisions based on the specific strengths and weaknesses of each company. However, fundamental bottom-up investing also has its drawbacks: It can be time-consuming and resource-intensive, requiring extensive research and analysis for each individual investment. This approach may not suit investors who prefer a more hands-off or passive approach to managing their portfolios. Moreover, it can be challenging to anticipate macro-economic trends or market shifts that could impact the performance of individual assets, as the focus is primarily on micro-level analysis.

The top-down approach, in turn, is primarily centred around its macro-economic perspective, allowing investors to assess global economic trends, sectoral developments, and broader market conditions. This strategic outlook enables investors to allocate their capital effectively and to capitalise on emerging opportunities, potentially yielding higher returns. Furthermore, top-down investors can adapt their portfolios to changing economic climates, making it a flexible approach when navigating market volatility. However, top-down investing is not without drawbacks. One significant challenge is that it may lead to overgeneralisation and missed nuances, as it emphasises broader trends over individual asset analysis. Investors relying solely on top-down strategies might overlook potentially lucrative opportunities within specific sectors or companies. Additionally, accurately predicting macro-economic trends can be exceptionally challenging and even small miscalculations can have adverse effects on portfolio performance. This approach can also lead to a lack of diversification if investors become too concentrated in a particular sector, increasing portfolio risk in the event of unexpected market shifts.

We, at Efficient, believe that the best approach to managing equity portfolios is to balance the macro-economic perspective with careful stock selection, which increases the investor’s potential to achieve favourable long-term returns. An investor must understand the underlying drivers of profitability for each company that they invest in, as well as the price that they pay for their share in those profits, while also managing the overall portfolio risk by comparing the portfolio exposure with the expected economic climate and secular themes at play. As with most things in life, finding an appropriate balance often leads to optimal outcomes.

Tough times never last

Dr. Francois Stofberg: Senior Economist at Efficient Wealth and the Managing Director of Efficient Private Clients.

Last week, prices of both grades of petrol went up by R1.71 per litre while diesel increased by close to R3 per litre. The recent jump in fuel prices is driven by a twofold weakening of the exchange rate and a substantially higher oil price. Having started at around R17 to the United States (US) dollar at the start of the year, the rand has now depreciated by more than 11% year-to-date. The oil price, in turn, has increased by more than 10% already this year, reaching its latest level just above $90 a barrel. A higher oil price will likely add to inflationary pressure, although the impact of higher fuel prices is usually overstated.

In our estimate, we consider the year-to-date deprecation of the rand and the oil price increase. We also factor in the second-round price effect, namely that higher fuel prices make “everything” else more expensive. But, even then, the higher fuel prices we have experienced in 2023 should not add more than 1.08% to consumer inflation on an annual basis. What is more important is to consider the impact of higher fuel prices in the context of the deteriorating macro-economy. For this reason, we still believe that inflation will remain close to 4.5%, the mid-range of the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB’s) target, in the medium term.
Overall, we do not expect the SARB to increase interest rates again, unless the US Federal Reserve becomes even more hawkish. If that happens, we might see one more increase of 0.25%. We agree with some analysts that we may even see our first interest rate decrease by mid-2024, which will be a welcome relief to most South Africans.

According to the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), South African consumers have started to claw back some of the lost ground. Unfortunately, the index remains well within negative territory. Confidence among individuals who earn more than R20 000 per month plunged to an all-time low of -40 in the second quarter of 2023 but rebounded to -17 in the third quarter. The confidence levels of households earning between R5 000 and R20 000 per month also improved, from -22 to -15 during the third quarter.

Theoretically, the FNB/BER CCI can vary between -100 and 100 but the overall index has fluctuated between -33 (indicating an extreme lack of confidence) and +23 (indicating extreme confidence) since the BER started measuring consumer confidence comprehensively in 1982. The average of the index is +2 and could, therefore, be regarded as the neutral level. So, even if we have seen an “improvement” among certain household income groups, consumer confidence is still far from neutral levels, and even further away from what can be considered a consumer base that is once again confident about the economy and their future.

It is becoming clearer that 2023 will be a very difficult year for the South African economy. Even though the economy grew slightly better than expected in the second quarter, 0.6% instead of 0.3%, most analysts expect that we will only grow about 0.3% for the entire year. Some argue that we might even see an annual contraction. Add to this, our deteriorating state finances and balance of payments, and you start to understand why our local markets are not attracting even short-term capital. All the while, the chances of a Goldilocks (too good to be true) environment in the US continue to increase.

So, what should investors do in times like these? Do not try and do it on your own. Always seek independent, holistic financial advice so that you can get the best objective advice that considers your unique financial objectives across generations. Also, do not be hasty. Do not fall for scams that promise you the moon and the stars; be extremely cautious about anyone who guarantees you more than 10% returns annually. And always remember, tough times never last, only tough people do!

The superiority of independent, holistic financial advice

Dr. Francois Stofberg: Senior Economist at Efficient Wealth and the Managing Director of Efficient Private Clients.

The term “economics” has its roots in ancient Greece. It is derived from two Greek words, namely “oikos”, which means “house”, and “nomos”, which means “law” or “custom”. When combined, “oikonomia” roughly translates to “household management” and concerns itself with the efficient allocation of resources within a household. The first “economists” one might, therefore, argue were not the clever philosophical mathematicians of the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries but rather the ancient stewards who used their expertise of providence to steward households towards prosperity, wealth, health, and happiness.

Over time, economics evolved to encompass a broader meaning whereby it sought to understand and to analyse how societies manage their resources to achieve their goals and to improve their well-being. Economics also became more of a mathematical science and the stewarding skills which it once embraced were all but forgotten. Today, wealth and investment managers try to replicate what the prodigal stewards once did but most fall short because they neglect the independent and holistic approach followed by the experts of old.

Our approach is, however, different: We not only combine wealth and investment management expertise but we do so independently and holistically. In this way, we can truly guide families with providence towards prosperity, which is an all-encompassing term that refers to the wealth, health, and happiness of individuals and their families across generations.

Independent financial advice offers clients unbiased, personalised guidance that considers their unique financial circumstances and goals. This can lead to more informed financial decisions and a more appropriate product and service mix, which, ultimately, leads to more efficient returns in the long term. But independence also leads to increased financial security and greater confidence in one’s financial future, that is, greater peace of mind. Unfortunately, too many clients receive less efficient guidance from advisors who do not offer independent advice but only those products and services of the company that they represent.

Holistic financial advice considers the individual, their family, and even the generations to come. It also considers each one of these from the much broader perspective of wealth, health, and happiness. By addressing these three dimensions together, holistic financial advice aims to improve a person’s overall well-being. This approach acknowledges that financial success alone does not guarantee health or happiness. The key is to find the right balance between accumulating wealth, maintaining physical and mental health, and pursuing a fulfilling and purpose-driven life. In essence, holistic financial advice recognises that wealth is a means to an end, and that end is often health and happiness. It provides a roadmap for individuals to use their financial resources to create a life that aligns with their values, promotes well-being, and, ultimately, leads to greater contentment.

Like the ancient stewards, we aim to provide independent, holistic financial advice to our clients in a way that can improve their wealth, health, and happiness for generations to come. To do this, we partner with the best product and service providers, and offer our clients unbiased, personalised advice in the context of their overall well-being.

Stick to the principles

Behavioural finance and why it matters

Dr. Francois Stofberg: Senior Economist at Efficient Wealth and the Managing Director of Efficient Private Clients, with specialist input from Christiaan van Wyk  

The world of finance and investments is often associated with numbers and statistics but the real-world experience looks a bit different with behavioural patterns often playing a significant role in financial markets. Behavioural finance is the study of the psychological influences and biases that both investors and financial practitioners experience when making financial decisions. These influences and biases can explain some of the market anomalies that we observe, such as dramatic moves in stock prices that are unexplained by the numbers and available information alone. Behavioural finance, therefore, attempts to explain why investors make different decisions than would be expected from a perfectly-rational individual that only makes decisions based on facts and sound reasoning. When working with real-world investors, one quickly realises that constructing financial plans based on the ‘optimal solution’ that a perfectly-rational investor would prefer, often leads to suboptimal outcomes as investors struggle to stick to these plans because of their inherent biases. We, as financial practitioners, therefore, have an obligation to educate investors on the various pitfalls that behavioural biases create and, where necessary, adjust our recommendations to accommodate these biases.

One example where a middle ground may be found is when an investor exhibits a bias known as ‘mental accounting’. This bias refers to the tendency of individuals to treat money, which should be seen as perfectly fungible, differently, based on the source or specific purpose assigned thereto. For example, individuals expecting to draw an income from their investment would often take on too little risk in their total portfolio because they tend to choose a ‘safer’ investment to the detriment of long-term performance. To accommodate investors, we often employ the bucket or layered approach to portfolio management, where each financial goal, whether it be income or growth, has its own sub-portfolio. The total portfolio is often less optimal than the perfectly-rational portfolio but the client is more likely to remain invested, leading to a better overall outcome.

Another common behavioural trait exhibited by both investors and financial practitioners is ‘herding’. It is very common for individuals to ‘follow the herd’ when making decisions, which often leads to irrational behaviour and asset bubbles. History is full of examples of this phenomenon and, admittingly, it is very difficult to swim against the current, especially if you must do so over an extended period. We, as financial practitioners, must build controls into our processes to avoid making the costly mistake of comfortably following the herd to avoid being different. Advertisers have gained enormous reach through online marketing in recent years, which increases the risk of investors succumbing to this bias because they have the perception that ‘everyone’ is investing in this new product, increasing the feeling of FOMO (fear of missing out).

The list of behavioural biases that impact investors is extensive. We believe that the perfectly-rational solution, although theoretically optimal, might not be the correct recommendation for all clients in reality. It is, therefore, important to properly understand and identify biases that investors exhibit, educate clients and, if necessary, manage behavioural biases for the ultimate benefit of investors.

Steps towards a more equal South Africa

Dr Francois Stofberg
Managing Director: Efficient Private Clients.

For almost three decades, the ruling party in South Africa (SA) has been relying on redistributive policies to build a more economically-just society. In doing so, SA’s inequality, as measured by the Gini coefficient, improved but only marginally. Unfortunately, SA is still the most unequal country in the world. But by using the incorrect policies, we now also have the highest unemployment rate, especially if we consider youth unemployment and that almost half of our population still lives in poverty. Life expectancy, an aggregate measure of success in advancing human life in a country, has remained unchanged. On this front, the ruling party has failed SA fundamentally. On the other end of the spectrum, after about four decades, the Chinese government used wealth-creative policies to significantly improve access to healthcare, education, and other services, while lifting more than 800 million people out of poverty. Life expectancy in China increased from 70 to 78 since 1995. From this perspective, we believe that it is easy to conclude that what the Chinese government achieved is much more “just” or, put differently, equitable.

Social-upliftment policies in SA focus mainly on redistribution, with black economic empowerment (BEE) at its core. Economic-upliftment policies in China, but also those which saw South Korea rise to prominence, focus on wealth creation. Even those social-upliftment policies that China had, for example, the redistribution of land, were tied to economic principles of productivity and surplus. Charity of this kind was to allow for subsistence farming, that is, to redistribute from one class (or race) to another. Even the core of China’s Communist Party policies is linked to market efficiencies. Civil servants and grant recipients are held accountable for their development, that is, they are individually responsible to contribute to society in a meaningful manner. Similarly, companies who receive subsidies are held accountable through export discipline: Lucrative tenders are not awarded to enrich themselves or those closest to them. If any business, or individual, does not produce competitively, first in the local market and then internationally, they are cut off from state support.

South Korea used a similar strategy and three decades later had Kia and Samsung, both industry leaders in their respective fields. By linking redistributive policies to the ruthlessness of market efficiency and export discipline, individuals, companies, and even the government are forced to invest in labour, capital, and technology to remain internationally competitive. The result has been extreme surpluses and extreme amounts of wealth in China and South Korea. It is important to note that, although the Chinese authoritative model will not work in SA, South Korea, among others, was able to achieve similar results with a system that allows for freedom and individual expression.

Wealth-creative policies are, therefore, able to create an environment of participative justice, equal access to private property, and opportunities to engage in productive work. It is important to note equal access, not equal result. Equal result speaks of charity, which is a result of redistributive policies that are unable to create opportunities like wealth-creative policies can. The next stage of our development in SA must, therefore, be wealth creative. All forms of government assistance (grants, subsidies, and even social-upliftment policies like BEE) must be tied to productivity and to producing internationally-competitive employees, products, and services. In this way, recipients and civil servants are forced into accountability, into taking responsibility for their decisions, actions, and, most importantly, their results. Finally, we must invest more in wealth-creative policies like education, healthcare, and infrastructure. But crucially, when we do, these too must be linked to export discipline through accountability

How to grow the South African economy

Dr Francois Stofberg
Managing Director: Efficient Private Clients.

Theoretically, it is not difficult to grow an economy. But practically, it is a nightmare to execute. Although there are many ways to approach economic growth, I would like to focus on the collective ideas of improving the ease of doing business and facilitating sound money. Overall, these collective ideas can encompass most of what is needed to sustainably grow the South African economy. However, knowing what to do, or even how to do it, is not as important as knowing why you are doing it. We should have more capitalist collectivism and less bureaucratic collectivism.

Improving the ease of doing business
The ease of doing business is everything that is needed to start and to run a successful and sustainable business. It has nothing to do with the traditional idea of government support, and everything to do with guiding, gearing, and getting out of the way of entrepreneurs. Governments should only guide and gear industries that have a high multiplier, that is, those that generate wealth and, consequently, more jobs. Importantly, these industries must have export discipline, meaning that they must be able to compete internationally. Also, guiding and gearing should only be for a set period. The South African textile industry is, therefore, possibly the worst industry to support.

Why is it important to first create wealth and then to employ more people? And why is it important that businesses, and not governments, create jobs? Because businesses employ people in the most effective manner, not governments. Businesses create more out of nothing and employ out of excess. Add export discipline and businesses are forced to invest in technology and in their people in a way that enables them to compete internationally. Governments do not compete, they simply impose, and because they do not compete, they never learn the skill of wealth creation, and because they do not create, they employ out of lack. Then there is also the lack of pricing signals that is missing in the government sector which makes it almost impossible to effectively allocate scarce resources.

Practically, to improve the ease of doing business means to fix Eskom, fix our railways, get rid of employment equity policies, and pull the teeth of unions. But it also means protecting private property rights and allowing for free trade. How do you do this? By building momentum through doing small things right to build confidence that can lead to larger victories. It starts with keeping the streets clean, and it ends with an education system that can compete with the best in the world.

Facilitating sound money
Sound money is the two-fold working of healthy fiscal and monetary policy that creates an environment that is conducive to growth. In terms of fiscal policy, this means effectively spending on capital and spending less on current expenditure (salaries and grants). Capital spending includes, but is not limited to, infrastructure, education, and healthcare. Sound money also means not wasting money and being accountable for every cent that is spent. Furthermore, it means guiding and gearing industries that need the support to create the wealth that can later be distributed from the self-interest perspective of collectivism. In terms of monetary policy, it means creating a stable price environment without reducing consumer confidence.

Economic growth all starts with the correct ideology
Economic growth all starts with the correct ideology, or else you will lose yourself along the way, much like the government did during the Zuma era. Our current ideology must lean less towards bureaucratic collectivism and more towards capitalist collectivism. Because our ideology is incorrect, private property rights are not protected like they should be to incentivise and facilitate the wealth-creative process of entrepreneurship.

However, the idea of collectivism is important because government should channel the efforts of capitalists (entrepreneurs) towards those industries that generate the greatest sustainable returns, that is, those that have the highest multipliers in a way that benefits all stakeholders. Moving to a collective self-identity, like the Rainbow Nation that we had under Nelson Mandela, will come naturally as government wins back the confidence of its citizens.

20 Years On… And The Efficient Group Is Still Standing Strong

Efficiency can be defined as the ability to achieve an end goal with little to no waste, effort, or energy.

While efficiency is a key part of the Efficient Group’s inherent philosophy and the way that it goes about its business (the name says it all), this definition does not encapsulate the essence of the Group’s 20-year journey. Indeed, it has been an all-out effort from day one. Without endless energy, passion, and enthusiasm, there would be no Efficient Group today.

As much as a 20-year milestone is a cause for celebration for the Group, it is not the end. If you ask co-founders Dawie Roodt and Heiko Weidhase, or any of their ambitious colleagues, they will tell you that the Efficient Group is only just getting started:

“We continue to have a lot of fun and love what we are doing. There is also so much more to do. Helping people attain financial well-being is what it is all about for us, and we have a good understanding of the benefits that financial well-being brings to people, communities, and the country as a whole.”

At an inspiring celebration at Time Square’s SunBet Arena in Pretoria, the Group hosted an unforgettable evening of reflection, projection, and gratitude for all of the key stakeholders in attendance… the co-authors of the Group’s tremendous success story. After all, 20 years in business is no small feat and the Efficient Group had much to celebrate!

For a business that started from humble beginnings, and for a brand that faced many unexpected challenges, the celebratory champagne tasted that much sweeter.

Some of the Group’s most impressive accomplishments over the past two decades include:

  • Started with R12 million under management, which grew into a business that has more than R390 billion of assets under management, advice, administration, and consulting.
  • Started with 15 clients, which grew into being involved in the financial well-being of more than 100 000 clients.
  • Listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange to raise capital from the public to build the business.
  • Delisted from the Johannesburg Stock Exchange to raise capital from private equity to further build the business.
  • Built a well-known industry brand and are now focussed on building a well-known retail brand.
  • Created significant value for all of our stakeholders: Our clients, our employees, our shareholders, and the communities that the Group conducts its business in.

In recent years, the Efficient Group has continued to grow for the better. In fact, the business has grown significantly over the past three years, more than doubling in value over this period.

The decision to delist has given the Group much-needed space and freedom, and has positioned it to invest in the business, both by acquiring value-adding businesses and by investing in its existing operations. By having the freedom to think ‘long term’, the business is actively working on becoming the preferred financial services provider company for South Africans from all walks of life.

Diane Radley, Chairperson of the Efficient Group, knows better than anyone that the long-term success of the Group is being written today, every day, by leaders like Chief Executive Officer Heiko Weidhase:

“What stands out for me is Heiko’s deep love for this business. Not many companies have this type of leadership. As we celebrate the 20th birthday of the Efficient Group, we all thank Heiko for his vision, dedication, and support that he has given each one of us so generously over the last 20 years.”

While addressing key stakeholders at the Group’s celebratory event, Diane added:

“We know our people are our main asset. We do not have big machines that produce things. Our advisor workforce is the lifeblood of this organisation and the work they do in ensuring our clients are looked after and protected is central to our existence. I, personally, am a devout believer in the value of advice, and the fact that we give truly independent advice is an asset that many tied-agent networks can never claim. We should never underestimate the power of independent advice. It builds trust with your clients – the best products from the best product providers to meet the needs of our clients in the best way possible. And now at Efficient, following recent acquisitions that we have made in the risk, medical and administration space, we provide an end-to-end offering where clients can get all of their financial needs met in one place.

With the feeling that this 20-year milestone is only the first chapter of this brand’s story, Diane shared her personal wishes for the Group’s ever-promising future:

“I would like to build a business at the Efficient Group that is representative of all of our current and future clients, transforming the industry and securing our clients’ financial futures.

I would like the Efficient Group to be the brand that everyone admires, respects, and trusts.

I would like us to have fun in doing this, utilising technology to do all the drudge work and to assist us in offering the best independent advice.

I would like us to spend more time with our clients and less time on administration.

I would like us to be a brand that is admired and respected for offering great service and investment outcomes, and delivering on our promises.

I would like us to be a one-stop shop where clients trust us with their holistic financial well-being, from retirement savings to investments and medical to risk, helping them sleep well at night and worry less about the security of their families and futures.

With information at our fingertips and continuity of information bespoke to each client, I know that we will enable every Efficient advisor to be exactly that… efficient.”

Efficient in all that it does, the Group’s name says it all. And its newly adopted positioning tells us why this brand is one to take note of. After all, a name is measured not by what it says, but by what it does… year after year, and decade after decade.

Global uncertainty and some good news for South Africans

Dr Francois Stofberg
Managing Director: Efficient Private Clients.

The global economy is heading towards an evermore uncertain place. Late in 2021, markets anticipated that central banks around the world would start to increase interest rates, and they subsequently did. Now, almost 18 months later, economies are giving mixed signals. Inflation is coming down in key regions, like North America and Europe, but not enough. Some economies, like India, are showing signs of life but others, like China, are really struggling. Yet in others, like the United States (US), one set of statistics shows a vibrant economy while others are more concerning. We do, however, see a lot of value in local equity and bond markets, and pockets of value in global equity markets, especially those companies that can play into emerging market growth without getting stuck in them.

China’s central bank left its lending benchmark rates unchanged last week even as signs of a faltering economic recovery called for more stimulus. Lowering interest rates to support the economy might, however, not be a favoured stimulus tool because it can widen inflation differentials with the US even more, leading to more short-term capital outflows. China’s economy grew at a frail pace of 0.8%, quarter-on-quarter, during the second quarter of 2023, missing analyst expectations by quite a margin. In China, local consumer and investor sentiment is very low, which is restraining demand and leading towards a worrying deflationary environment. Although lower inflation in China is welcome news for their trading partners, like South Africa (SA). The massive real estate sector has struggled to recover, while exports have plunged owing to decreasing global demand. Investors are, therefore, hoping for more supportive measures to ensure Beijing’s growth target of 5% for the year remains on track. A healthy, fast-growing China will also be welcome news for the rest of the world.

South Africans received some welcome news last week. On Wednesday, the unleaded petrol price (95) fell by 17 cents a litre, while 93 was lowered by 24 cents a litre. Over the past month, global oil prices fell slightly, mostly owing to fears about a global economic slowdown but also because large oil-producing countries decided not to cut production at their last meeting. The average rand-dollar exchange rate for the past month was R18.68/$, slightly lower than the R18.98 we had during the previous month. Oil prices seem to be settling in a range between $75 and $85, whilst the rand, at levels below R18.00/$, is showing signs of strength. What this means is that we might even have more petrol price cuts in the upcoming months.

Lower petrol prices are not the end of the good news. With a 3-2 majority vote, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) kept interest rates unchanged on Thursday. The repo rate thus remains at 8.25%, with the prime rate at 11.75%. Our hardliner governor was, however, quick to add that this does not mean that interest rates have peaked. Fortunately for weary South African consumers, inflation seems to have peaked albeit on quarterly and annual rates. Since the 7.8% high that we saw in July 2022, consumer prices have been on a steady decline, falling from 6.8% in April 2023, to 6.3% in May, before reaching 5.4% in June, nicely within the SARB’s target range of 3% to 6%. Unfortunately, the US Federal Reserve will, most likely, hike interest rates by 0.25% this week, and maybe once more this year. Considering this, the SARB will, most likely, feel obligated to increase rates too, even though there is little evidence to support their conviction that higher interest rates in SA can attract short-term capital towards SA in this environment. If conditions were different, their plan might have worked but not in the current uncertain global environment.