If you want to see what is driving the world economy right now, look to Northern Virginia in the United States (US). There, Data Center Alley stretches for kilometres and is home to the computers that train artificial-intelligence (AI) models. The frenzy to build more of these centres has powered one of the strongest investment booms that the US has seen in years.
It is hard to ignore the feeling that we have been here before: Another United States (US) president threatening tariffs, another Chinese countermeasure, and another shock rippling through markets. But something feels different this time. President Donald Trump’s plan to impose 100% tariffs on virtually all Chinese imports is not just an economic manoeuvre; it is the loudest signal yet that the era of globalisation as we know it is ending. For the past three decades, the world’s economy has been organised around efficiency. Now, it is being reorganised around control. Supply chains are becoming weapons, trade routes bargaining chips, and tariffs tools of ideology rather than economics.
Central banks have long warned that setting interest rates is a “blunt tool” for steering economies and inflation. However, this tool is becoming more blunt. As economies evolve structurally, conventional monetary policy is struggling to shape behaviour as it once did. As a result, South Africa (SA) must adapt its expectations and instruments.
October has arrived with anticipation. In South Africa (SA), it is the month of examinations, blooming Jacarandas, and a push to finish the year strong. Globally, it is no different: Leaders in the United Kingdom (UK) and Japan wrestle with their futures, while Washington and Brussels spar over the digital economy. Beneath the headlines lies a deeper question: How do nations, companies, and individuals create value in an uncertain world?
For the first time in years, South Africa’s (SA’s) inflation is closer to Switzerland’s than Zimbabwe’s. August’s Consumer Price Index slowed to 3.3% year-on-year, comfortably inside the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB’s) 3% to 6% target and edging towards the lower end. Core inflation remains steady at 3.1%. These figures are far from the double-digit surges of the past, suggesting that monetary policy is finally gaining traction. So, why did the SARB hold the repo rate unchanged at 7.00% in September instead of cutting it again? Policymakers argue that past easing still needs time to filter through. With the rand volatile and SA’s risk premium high, they prefer to wait for inflation to prove that it can stay low.
Economists often talk about “externalities” (the unintended costs or benefits of one person’s choices that spill over onto others). We usually think of carbon emissions or pollution. But South Africa (SA) has a more immediate example: The everyday cost of being inconsiderate. From the traffic light to the boardroom, inconsideration chips away at productivity, erodes trust, and imposes real economic losses.
For the first time in more than a decade, South Africans may be entering summer without the fear of load shedding hanging over every family dinner, boardroom meeting, or production line. Earlier this month, Eskom said that it expects no load shedding between September 2025 and March 2026, contingent on keeping unplanned breakdowns under control. Last summer, we saw just 13 days of cuts vs. 176 days the year before: A remarkable turnaround for a utility long synonymous with crisis.
For more than a decade, South Africans have endured declining economic growth, persistent load shedding, and weak governance. Growth in real gross domestic product (GDP) has averaged less than 1% since 2014. It is tempting to think that this decline could continue indefinitely but we have already absorbed the worst shocks. Barring a severe political or service-delivery shock, the probability of a sustained collapse to zero or negative growth is very low.
Markets are being pulled in multiple directions: Technology supply chains are under strain, central banks are caught between inflation and growth, and new financial hubs are emerging. Each shift illustrates how politics and policy increasingly shape market outcomes.
The global economy resembles a chessboard, with each region playing its own strategy. Three stories now connect in telling ways: China is battling deflation with a new slogan, India is profiting from discounted Russian crude, and emerging markets are racing back to international bond markets on a wave of investor optimism.
